New Delhi: Goods and services tax (GST) collection this month is likely to exceed ₹2 lakh crore, driven by lower GST rates and increased compliance despite a projected revenue loss, according to a report by SBI.
GST collection in November 2024 was ₹1.82 lakh crore.
The high collection is backed by the estimated ₹51,000 crore of IGST and cess collection on high imports during the festive season.
The report, written by SBI group chief economic advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, estimates a real GDP growth of 7.5-8.0% in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, supported by strong investment activities, rural consumption recovery and services and manufacturing growth. “In continuum of the good numbers from festive-led sales, percentage of leading indicators in consumption and demand across agri, industry, service showing acceleration has increased to 83% in Q2 from 70% in Q1. Based on the estimated model, we obtain a forecast of real GDP growth of ~7.5% in Q2FY26 with possibility of an upside surprise,” the report said. The GST rate cuts are expected to boost consumption, with an estimated 7% savings for consumers per month, it said.
“Growth is being supported by a pick up in investment activities, recovery in rural consumption and buoyancy in services and manufacturing, underpinned by structural reforms like GST rationalisation that also helped unleash a festive spirit that decisively showcased triumph of hope over hype,” the report said.
SBI’s analysis of credit and debit card spending patterns shows a significant increase in consumption during the festive season, with credit card transactions crossing 12.3 million on Diwali with a value of ₹7,328 crore. The bank’s data suggests a jump of around 5% in value of credit card spends during September-October compared to the same period last year.
The report also notes a double-digit growth in car sales volume, with maximum growth coming from rural regions, while higher-end variants and models saw accelerated growth in urban and metro centres.
